+41 22 700 21 43

The Sunny Belt will redraw the line of the House!!!!!

Apr 26, 2021 | Demographics, Thematic, USA

In a previous post, I exposed my happiness to assist at what is happening in Miami and Florida. Hedge Funds and Private Equity firms are coming, Tech giants are moving top managements there.

I shared my vision in 2015 about the why the what and the how of the US financial barycentric move in favor of Miami. You know the story, and facing blind and unresponsive management, I create my own company, fully decided to base one day my family and my headquarter in Miami.

All subscribers of our Global Macro Insight well know it: Demography is a powerful science but put on the side by finance. Today the Census, which ended in 2020, sent a clear message. The political power is shifting from the Rusty Belt to the Sunny Belt. More households mean more seats at the House!!!

Texas, which had 36 congressional seats for the past decade, will elect two additional members of the House in next year’s midterm elections. Florida’s delegation will add a 28th seat. Both gained one seat fewer than expected. North Carolina, Colorado, Oregon, and Montana will each gain an extra seat, but Arizona did not pick up a seat despite pre-announcement forecasts showing the state adding a 10th district.

Meanwhile, New York will shed one of 27 districts in next year’s elections. Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia are each also dropping one seat.

 

This is major news! In 2022, the mid-term elections could cause headaches to Democrats, and Biden could have some problem keeping the majority of the House. Why? Most of the constituent states of the Sunny Belt are leading by Republicans…

Biden should now play hard regarding his Infrastructure Plan.

Florida and Texas could become the sunny equivalent of the State of NY and California in few years.

 

Share this:

Geopolitical Collateral Damages vs. Financial Collateral Advantages!

Somes extracts : Given the last point, your scribe believes that while condemnations are almost unanimous, most Western countries will do everything possible to prevent the conflict from spreading to other countries.   Since the Yom Kippur War and throughout the...

Geopolitical Risk vs. Squeeze vs. the FED…

Some extracts Looking back at Friday's session, it was one of the best days on record for our GTO (+1.6%) "We're not safe from a surprise, so many of the employment figures are revised and skewed." (GMI 06/10/2023). When your scribe wrote these words on Friday...

The Great Normalization. “Why” is essential, but “Why, Now” is crucial. China is not in Japanification.

Some extracts Your scribe insists we are only in the Great Normalization of our Western economies. After years of dependence on central bank liquidity, making a monkey able to build an asset allocation ...   It's not the "why," as Powell has been repeating his...

A New Quarter with Positioning and Economies at the Crossroads!

Some extracts : - On Friday morning, your scribe had shared, "Now, the optimal take-off zone seems to be around October 15, which leaves us with a few more complicated days ahead if the bond markets don't calm down unless the CTAs (whose asymmetry is to the buy side)...

Resilience Facing the Last Bear Barrage! Golden Week in China and India is not China.

Some extracts : Yesterday, we noted the "disaster" that was this revision for Q2: instead of the unchanged 1.7% figure of the second estimate of Q2 GDP, the final figure was a disaster of 0.8%, a 9-sigma deviation from estimates... China has no reason to be ashamed of...

Resilience in a No-Rules Market! Duration is THE risk! Chinese economy bottoming out and US Treasury Basis Trade to Watch!

Some extracts : We'll come back to these various points, but first, your scribe will recall his convictions in Global Macro even though the markets no longer have any rules: Duration is the main danger in asset allocation. Markets are increasingly ripe for a rebound...

US to indefinitely extend China waiver for South Korean chipmakers

The U.S. is expected to indefinitely extend a waiver granted to South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix on needing licenses to bring U.S. chip equipment into China, Yonhap news agency reported on Wednesday. The U.S. Commerce Department has discussed...

Positioning stronger than Fundamental? Flows are Stronger, for now… Improving Entry Points in Risky Assets?

Some extract : Yesterday was symptomatic of our markets: neither fundamentals nor positioning were the cause of asset movements (except for rates), .... According to reports, after the US banking sector experienced a period of turbulence earlier this year, total...

Big Bet On U.S. Multifamily from The World’s Billionaires

Over the past 10 years, some of the world's richest have more than doubled their investments in apartments globally, with a particularly heavy emphasis on the U.S, Bloomberg reported, citing research from Knight Frank. With oversupply being an issue in the multifamily...

Positioning stronger than Fundamental? Just a Question of Temporality.

Some extracts: To be clear, your scribe believes that we are almost at the dawn of the October rally and that, given the extreme positioning of shorts, fundamentals will not carry much weight. For the record, our Global Macro's two best performances in yesterday's...

Categories

Disclaimer

I hereby certify that I am a professional investor

More information about our Privacy Policy